Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 44.234902 52.115620 60.729691 70.810085 82.246893 94.783052 109.526050
2024-12-22 29.554122 39.236486 50.859347 65.695547 83.972718 105.587532 132.902203
2024-12-29 23.838927 34.650330 48.566103 67.479539 92.164554 122.910573 163.670715
2025-01-05 19.123223 30.138861 45.214430 66.838219 96.462135 134.967023 188.027832
2025-01-12 17.163533 28.915599 45.821252 71.133313 107.149623 155.524691 224.173931
2025-01-19 13.472973 24.455794 41.148815 67.331958 106.122762 160.050252 238.945666
2025-01-26 11.995997 23.141045 40.848543 69.663944 113.719024 176.608849 270.771975
2025-02-02 11.262668 22.902598 42.112603 74.360043 124.973478 198.822605 311.510298
2025-02-09 10.141458 21.795906 41.804160 76.478853 132.368500 215.724700 345.341796
2025-02-16 9.025959 20.506631 41.004535 77.654263 138.268735 230.594877 376.762319
2025-02-23 7.897602 18.997598 39.621718 77.670263 142.226759 242.612683 404.349597
2025-03-02 6.709644 17.157444 37.405963 76.002619 143.238158 250.024265 425.158866
2025-03-09 5.805149 15.864543 36.263154 76.513759 148.589180 265.595748 461.029819
2025-03-16 4.431988 13.243501 32.214729 71.370517 144.007156 265.244532 472.449470
2025-03-23 3.944980 12.578056 31.978381 73.305864 151.873388 285.533127 517.568612
2025-03-30 3.320759 11.410233 30.496262 72.620520 154.906828 297.852693 550.275290
2025-04-06 3.159542 11.432432 31.610783 77.221387 167.945383 327.745380 613.110470
2025-04-13 2.470950 9.786124 28.679147 73.149707 164.335334 328.692253 627.687652
2025-04-20 2.255296 9.481474 28.852500 75.647836 173.466843 352.352457 681.568715
2025-04-27 2.185907 9.623611 30.137082 80.675652 187.858615 385.999479 753.805026
2025-05-04 1.989849 9.295394 30.186205 82.942941 196.870178 410.326696 810.804363
2025-05-11 1.773190 8.832209 29.813236 84.200414 203.893101 431.310406 862.715518
2025-05-18 1.537579 8.223065 28.950578 84.217529 208.334662 447.689892 907.071486